Amr Hamzawy : Egypt's Opposition Misled by Fixation with Mubarak’s Son

Amr Hamzawy
The National,
1 December 2009 Tuesday

Political opposition in Egypt has been stirred by a recent campaign against Gamal Mubarak, the son of the president Hosni Mubarak, becoming Egypt’s new president in 2011. In particular, Ayman Nour, a key opposition figure and a presidential candidate in 2005, has mobilised a wide spectrum of political groups to present a united front in upcoming legislative and presidential elections in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

Upon closer look, however, Mr Nour’s rallying cry is troubling. In gearing up for elections, the opposition has demonstrated a near complete inability to prioritise the issues essential to its political future, and has squandered its efforts trying to prevent Gamal Mubarak’s succession.

Egypt’s opposition groups, including both legal parties and the Muslim Brotherhood, have been in disarray since the regime introduced stifling constitutional amendments in 2007. These measures limit the oversight powers of the judiciary in elections, fail to set term limits on the presidential mandate, and ban religiously affiliated political activities.

While opposition forces have been exclusively focused on the one issue – Gamal Mubarak’s possible ascendancy – the Egyptian regime has been carefully creating an environment which will sustain its rule. The ruling elite is no newcomer to this game. They have consistently manipulated the political process by preventing the opposition from registering candidates in elections, obstructing the campaign process, and fomenting violence on election day.

In contrast to the ruling elite’s clear direction, the opposition has no guiding compass and is left wandering through the challenges posed by the political agenda in Egypt. Their failure cannot be solely attributed to the regime’s repressive measures – a great part of the responsibility belongs to the opposition parties themselves.

Since 2005, parties including the liberal Wafd party, Ayman Nour’s Ghad party and the Democratic Front, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood (which is banned but has de facto representation in parliament) have all failed in two major tasks: formulating an elections platform and clear vision for Egypt’s political development, and applying sufficient pressure on the regime for political and economic reform.

Despite its acquisition of an unprecedented 88 parliamentary seats in the 2005 elections, the Muslim Brotherhood has yet to push for serious reform of the political system. Several concerns also remain unresolved in Egyptian and international public opinion regarding the Brotherhood’s positions on equal citizenship rights for Copts and Muslims, women’s participation in politics and freedom of expression.

The opposition parties urgently need to tackle several issues to position themselves for the 2010 and 2011 elections. First, groups have to clarify their stance on the question of domestic and international monitoring of elections. Especially with regard to the latter, the opposition remains divided.

Second, they have to prioritise calls for the abolition of the emergency law in effect in Egypt since 1981. Finally, parties should be more attuned to new political opportunities, expanding grassroots activities to capitalise on growing protest sentiment among wide segments of the population who are suffering from deteriorating social and economic conditions.

With Egypt’s declining GDP growth, the unemployment rate reaching 10.3 per cent, a poverty rate of 20 per cent, and an alarming level of debt – 76 per cent of GDP – citizens are in desperate need of competent political parties.

The implications of the upcoming elections will, of course, extend beyond Egypt’s borders. In light of the regime’s recent political manoeuvring and the opposition’s stagnation, the 2010 and 2011 elections in Egypt will test the Obama administration’s stance on democracy in the Middle East. Its position will either demonstrate a commitment to the incumbent regime of the Mubaraks as a strategic ally in a turbulent region regardless of its domestic behaviour, or signal pressure to create better conditions for democratic reform and political competition in Egypt.

The first signals from the Obama administration are not encouraging; the administration has so far put the promotion of democracy low on its list of priorities. Washington has only raised the issue of reform in the context of concessions that Mr Mubarak has already made. The Obama administration has also cut aid to numerous actors and organisations in civil society.

The campaign organised by Mr Nour is a step in the right direction for the opposition in Egypt, but he and other activists would be wise to adjust their agenda. Only by letting go of their obsession with Gamal Mubarak’s succession and addressing other issues at the core of the upcoming elections can opposition groups counter the regime’s hegemony.

Egyptian Activist Nour Presses For More Rights in Political Process

Ayman Nour giving interview to VOA (03 Jun 2009)

Egyptian authorities recently banned opposition leader Ayman Nour from traveling to the United States where he was invited to speak to several organizations. While Egyptian authorities say the ban is lawful, Nour's supporters say it is the latest in a series of moves aimed at marginalizing opposition groups ahead of next year's parliamentary elections.

Ayman Nour, the main challenger to President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election in 2005, is no stranger to political pressure.

He founded the opposition el Ghad party, created to represent a liberal democratic perspective, with a strong interest in human rights. Nour used the party as a platform to call for constitutional reform, limiting the president's powers and opening presidential elections to multiple candidates.

The opposition leader was recently blocked by Egyptian authorities from traveling to the United States to attend conferences at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace and other groups.

The U.S. State Department has called on the Egyptian government to reconsider its ban.

Nour says he has been barred from teaching at any state universities. He says he cannot access his bank accounts and cannot participate as a candidate in any elections. He was also jailed shortly after the 2005 elections on charges of forgery and spent over three years in prison before being released in February in what he describes as a ploy to get him out of politics.

Egyptian authorities say the travel ban was a condition of his early release from prison. Nour disagrees. A lawyer by profession, he says he knows his rights and is not giving up.

He says that opposing political corruption, particularly the kind of corruption he's seen after the elections and since his arrest, is not a choice, but a duty.

Cairo University professor and member of the ruling National Democratic Party's advisory committee Mohamed Kamal rejects Nour's claims and says the politician has plenty of freedom.

"I think there is some exaggeration in these accusations," Kamal said. "Ayman Nour is free to engage in whatever campaign he wants to engage in. He has access to the people. He has access to the media. Maybe the question he doesn't ask himself is whether this cause that he carries the flag (for) is popular among Egyptians or not."

Other opposition groups say they, too, are hampered in their attempts to participate openly in Egyptian political life. Not far from Kamal's office, Muslim Brotherhood students at Cairo University protest moves they say are aimed at keeping them out of the student union elections.

On the national level, the Muslim Brotherhood are banned from officially putting forth candidates for election. The Egyptian constitution forbids political parties based on religion. The group has done well despite the law, with 88 members who ran as independents now in parliament.

According to Muslim Brotherhood lawmaker Akram Shaar, there are concerted efforts by the ruling party to keep opposition groups at bay.

He says everyone ranging from opposition groups, the mainstream and everyday honest citizens who love their country are prevented from taking part in a true and open dialogue. He said they are also prevented from taking part in elections and from having their opinions heard.

In a wider effort to keep up pressure on Egypt's ruling party, Nour joined forces with the Muslim Brotherhood and several other opposition groups to launch a campaign called Did Al-Wirasa, meaning "against inheritance." Its name is a reference to the president's son, Gamal Mubarak, head of the National Democratic Party's policies committee, who is widely seen as being groomed to take over from his father.

Nour says that it is every citizen's right to choose and to be a part of the country's decision-making process. He says the new campaign is aimed at curbing any decisions taken without the people's vote. Nour says people want to choose who rules them.

81-year-old President Mubarak, who has been in power for 28 years, has yet to say if he will seek another six-year term in office. Likewise, his son has not announced his plans. But many believe that what takes place in next year's parliamentary elections will set the tone for what happens in the 2011 presidential vote.

[http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/a-13-2009-11-11-voa21-69822552.html]

Anti-establishment in Egypt: the return of Ayman Nour

The one-time presidential candidate is among dissidents who won't be silenced, despite the government's efforts prior to 2011 elections.

By Theodore May - GlobalPost

Published: October 11, 2009 08:34 ET

CAIRO, Egypt — We had just finished Round One of an intense interview with Ayman Nour. The 2005 runner-up for the Egyptian presidency, who subsequently spent three years in jail, slipped out for a cigarette on the rooftop of his opulent Cairo apartment before heading inside to resume his interview with GlobalPost.

Halfway to his seat, though, he stopped and beckoned me to come close.

“You asked me about torture,” he said, referencing a question I had asked him about his imprisonment. “I didn’t want to talk much about it, because I didn’t want to upset my son.”

But with his son out of the room, Nour rolled up the leg of his well-tailored suit. His ghostly white leg was pocked with deep black-and-blue marks that he said were left by the chains his guards used to bound him.

“And I’m not going to show you my back,” he said in a near-whisper.

In a second, the moment had passed, and Nour sunk back into his chair, ready for more questioning.

Such is life for this most high-profile of Egypt’s political dissidents.

The years 2004 and 2005 represented what the deputy Muslim Brotherhood leader Essam Al-Aryan calls the “spring of semi-democracy,” with Nour running a robust campaign for the presidency — he won 9 percent of the vote — and the Muslim Brotherhood picking up 20 percent of the seats in the lower house of parliament.

Now, though, with parliamentary elections looming next year and presidential elections slated for 2011, the government looks eager to shore up its primacy by clamping down aggressively on political opposition.

But the government is finding foes in every corner of the political spectrum. Islamists, liberal democrats, socialists and more have been fighting for a voice.

While the government has used the legal system to hamper the opposition’s efforts, harassment and detention seem to be the tools of choice.

If arrests are any indication, the Muslim Brotherhood is the government’s biggest worry. Just last week, security forces scooped up 12 members of the group. On Saturday, the government arrested 24 more members. More than 300 now languish in jail, according to Al-Aryan, most charged with belonging to a banned group.

“All Muslim Brotherhood now are waiting for arrest,” he said. “Tens of thousands of people are Muslim Brothers. They live under such tensions … And of course it is a message in preparation for the upcoming elections.”

“Now, for any Muslim Brother, prison is a second home,” quipped Al-Aryan, who says he has been arrested eight times over 30 years, including three times between 2005 and 2007. He claims to have been tortured twice.

The government denies that the arrests are political. And it leans on the judiciary to back up its claim.

"The defendant can say whatever he wants to say to defend himself. That's his constitutional right," said Mohamed Quita, a member of parliament from the ruling party. In reference to Nour, he added: "But the fair judicial system has had its word. And they were convicted of their crimes, which shows it was not political, and these allegations have no basis in truth."

The government also denies the torture charges. According to Quita, his party has visited prisons investigated the charges but "didn't find any trail of torture."

While the Muslim Brotherhood has been around since before the founding of the Republic of Egypt, the government has had to start dealing with a new threat: bloggers.

The blogosphere in Egypt first became politicized on a massive scale in the wake of political unrest in 2005. Since then, their numbers have grown by the tens of thousands.

Unlike in some countries, the security forces, led by the Interior Ministry’s cyber crime division, don’t shut down websites critical of the government. They go after the writers.

“I would say this is the pattern,” said Hossam el-Hamalawy, one of Egypt’s most prominent bloggers. “It’s either phone up, threaten them, [or] stop them at the airport when they come. But we didn’t reach the level of, say, Tunisia,” where the government cracks down aggressively, banning people from the web or hacking their websites.

Many of these bloggers, though, are also street activists, protesting various government practices. It is in this context that many of them are arrested. El-Hamalawy is a socialist whose blog takes aim at the government’s labor practices. He says he was arrested and tortured in 2000 (before he started his blog) for tearing down the American flag that flew over the American University in Cairo. He has been arrested twice subsequently.

Part of the threat that bloggers pose to the government, he believes, is that they break stories of political or military abuse that conventional newspapers won’t.

He added that local print reporters have been known to feed controversial stories to bloggers so that they can report on the blog coverage instead of on the story itself.

Despite the crackdown, it’s remarkable that many of these political dissidents, who hail from all ends of the political spectrum, continue to lead life in the public eye.

El-Hamalawy serves as an editor at one of the country’s pre-eminent newspapers.

Al-Aryan works out of his office at the doctor’s syndicate in downtown.

Nour, who was unexpectedly released from jail early this year, has launched a grassroots political campaign called “Knocking on Doors.” As leader of the Ghad party, he goes door to door across the country, extolling the virtues of liberal democracy.

If his group tries to set up formal events, he says, security forces shut them down ahead of time. But they still let him go door to door and spread his message quietly.

“We can’t hold conferences,” he said. “We can’t own any newspapers or visual media. We are prevented from using any means of communications. The only right that they can’t prevent us from doing is our right to walk on our feet in the streets.”

No more letters home for Ayman Nour

ed: Is Mubarak still scared of this guy, even when he's under lock and key?

LAT Home

No more letters home for Ayman Nour. An Egyptian court has ruled that the jailed political dissident and leader of the Tomorrow Party can no longer write to his wife. The reason: Nour has angered officials by mailing home essays critical of the government that ended up in the nation’s independent newspapers.

"This decision shows a determination to deny him every right as a prisoner," Nour's wife, Gamila Ismail, told AFP.

The ruling is the latest attempt to silence Nour, a lawyer who ran against President Hosni Mubarak in 2005 and was later sentenced to five years in prison for forging political documents. His cause was quickly taken up by human rights organizations that frequently criticize Egypt for political repression, torture and the jailing of activists, especially members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

BBC News - Winds of change blow through Egypt politics

Winds of change blow through Egypt politics

Among all the opposition protests have been pro-Mubarak rallies

"Political congestion" is the phrase Egyptians are using to describe a deepening stand-off between the opposition and the government.

The opposition is not strong enough to bring down the government. But the government - wary of a possible international outcry - cannot quash the opposition by force.

Two snapshots of what is happening on the streets of Cairo illustrate the situation quite dramatically.

On the day parliament approved a change to the constitution to allow Egyptians to choose their president in a direct vote for the first time in their history, the opposition movement, Kifaya, called a news conference to denounce the proposed amendment.

Kifaya says the change puts insurmountable hurdles in the path of anyone wanting to challenge President Hosni Mubarak, who has led Egypt for 24 years and may still run for another six-year term in elections in September.

We believe in democracy and political pluralism. What we want is civilian rule within an Islamic framework. There should be no contradiction between democracy and Sharia Mohammad al-Sayyed Habeeb Muslim Brotherhood

Shortly before the opposition news conference was due to start, the ruling National Democratic Party bussed its "supporters" - a crowd of poor women from the countryside - to the venue, carrying banners and chanting slogans in support of Mr Mubarak.

One woman I spoke to did not appear to know why she was there. "It seems that there is an election," she added, oblivious to the man trying to stop her talking to the media.

Demonstrations everywhere

As the pro-Mubarak chanting continued, members of the Kifaya movement were forced to retreat and held a chaotic news conference inside the building.

Outside, the riot police threw a cordon around the entire area, turning the political stand-off into a real traffic jam.

The second "snapshot" incident occured a few hours later, when the interior ministry deployed 10 armoured trucks full of soldiers in riot gear and dozens of plain-clothed policemen to prevent another demonstration in a different part of town.

A group of engineers had called a protest outside their union, which has been under government control for the past 10 years. The engineers want to hold elections for a new board.

Riot police have been out in force and hundreds of protesters arrested

The sight of so many anti-riot police ranged against a handful of men was a sign of the regime's growing nervousness in the face of mounting frustration and resentment among Egypt's relatively small, but increasingly bold, political class.

In recent months, protesters have taken to the streets in a way not seen in Egypt for decades.

Men and women calling for Mr Mubarak to step down dare to make their demands in public demonstrations. Many protesters have been arrested, because under emergency law, the right to demonstrate is severely restricted.

The change in mood came last year with the emergence of the Kifaya movement, an umbrella organisation that brings together secularists and Islamists.

Kifaya, which means "enough" in Arabic, is a short and pithy way of expressing the resentment and desire for change its members feel, but it is not yet the political mass movement it aspires to be.

Tough restrictions

Under the constitutional amendment allowing multi-candidate elections, only a political party that has been registered for five years and holds 5% of seats in parliament can nominate a candidate.

Existing party leaders will be exempted from this restriction for September's election. But independent candidates must be endorsed by 250 elected members of parliament and local councils.

These conditions, the opposition says, are absurd because they will make a nominee dependent on the support of his political rivals to run for the presidency.

If the elections were not rigged, I would be happy with a requirement of 50% backing in parliament Ayman Nour Opposition leader

But the government says constraints on presidential candidacy are quite common in other parts of the world.

Parliamentary speaker Dr Ahmad Fathi Serour - a stalwart of the ruling NDP - points to the French constitution, which stipulates that the candidate must have 500 signatures of elected politicians; and to the constitution of Indonesia, which requires that parties have 15% of seats in the parliament to nominate a presidential candidate.

The problem is not the 5%, says Ayman Nour, the articulate and ambitious leader of the new al-Ghad party (Tomorrow).

"Everyone in Egypt knows that the parliament elections in Egypt are rigged," he says. "If the elections were not rigged, I would be happy with a requirement of 50% backing in parliament."

Biggest party banned

Under the new constitutional amendment, the country's largest and most popular group will also be effectively barred from nominating a candidate. The Muslim Brotherhood is outlawed as the Egyptian constitution bans religious political parties.

The group itself says there can never be true democracy without its involvement.

Ayman Nour addresses supporters at a chaotic rally

Deputy leader Mohammad al-Sayyed Habeeb denies any contradiction between democracy and the application of Islamic Sharia law, which the group is calling for.

"We believe in democracy and political pluralism," Mr Habeeb tells me at the group's office in Cairo.

"What we want is civilian rule within an Islamic framework. Just as there is civilian rule within a liberal, or capitalist or socialist framework, there can also be civilian rule within an Islamic framework.

"There should be no contradiction between democracy and Sharia, which has to be implemented, but only with the full backing of the people and never to be imposed upon them."

Some analysts believe the ban on the Muslim Brotherhood has only added to its popularity. Imad el-Din Shahin of the American University in Cairo says there may be some exaggeration of the power and popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Dr Shahin says that the Egyptians sympathise with the underdog and "the Muslim Brothers have been denied their legitimate rights".

Cut off from politics

But despite the current intense activity on the political scene in Egypt, the majority of Egypt's 70 million people remain cut off from politics and more significantly from the agenda of the opposition.

"We are farmers, we don't understand politics," said a ferryman who transports farmers and their fresh produce from a small island in the Nile to the urban districts of Cairo.

Some of the passengers laughed and giggled when I asked them whether they would vote again for Mr Mubarak in the forthcoming presidential election. They all said yes.

Perhaps it is not surprising that they feel the way they do about Mr Mubarak.

Many of them have grown up with him, and they continue to be fed a diet by the state media of Mr Mubarak as a great hero, almost a national symbol.

And as long as political activity is so severely restricted, and the government keeps its stranglehold on television and radio, then the opposition will continue to find it difficult to reach out to the wider public.