Ayman Nour: One year since Obama’s inauguration

Barack Hussein Obama has made history since he became the first black person to win a seat in the U.S. Senate and made history for the second time when he won the Democratic Party’s nomination for the Presidential election. He has since made more history when he scored victory in the elections, becoming the first black American President in history.

But making history is different than entering this space and formulating the wide consequences resulted from this victory, as before Obama, American President James Buchanon also made history as the first and the only president to remain a lifelong bachelor, as well as President Martin Van Buren, considering English was not his mother tongue.

Obama’s real problem from the moment of his inauguration last January 20, 2009, is that he began a new phase, which is greater than making history; a difficult stage of the competition, much harder than the old Republican rivals or even his stubborn Democratic rival – and his current Secretary of State – Hilary Clinton, or with his predecessor: Bush.

Obama’s rival after one year in office is himself. He is the only person he cannot defeat, as Obama, the current President of the United States, is a rival to Obama – who was described by the dreamy minds as “the savior”; minds that painted the image of Obama and put it in the background of the image. They drew the descriptions of Moses splitting the sea and Joshua who stopped the sun, and Christ, who revives the dead! And certainly, Obama is not any of these prophets.

Although America is part of the world – and not the whole world – Obama has become a universal dream, especially considering the other was a universal nightmare. Strangely enough, and dangerous, is the conflicting expectations about Obama from related parties whose positions have conflicting interests and can only be unified by hope and ambition in this “magical” image. They have planted in their imagination of Barack Obama, who has to find an impossible approach to fulfill this imagination.

Obama’s problem, who had plenty of sympathy in Egypt and many Arab countries is doubled due to historical considerations and past experience with former presidents of the US, who at the beginning were greeted by them [Arabs], then they called on for their impeachment.

At the end of World War I President Woodrow Wilson made the 12 principles his priority. The last of these principles was the right of every nation to self-determination and Egypt’s Revolution in 1919 was against the British occupation of Egypt, demanding the right to self-determination, and the demonstrators shouted slogans honoring Saad Zaghloul (revolutionary leader) and Mr. Wilson.

In Syria, demonstrations demanded an American Mandate in the hope of the promise of Wilson.

Suddenly, President Wilson recognized the British protégé in Egypt, and demonstrations were organized to call for his impeachment, after it was organized in the beginning to cheer his life! The same thing happened in Syria, when he recognized the French Mandate of Syria and Lebanon!

When President Roosevelt declared the Four Freedoms, the motivation of Arabs turned from Hitler to America, then Truman succeeded Roosevelt, to recognize Israel, breaking Roosevelt’s promises during World War II, causing a shock to the Arabs and a shift in their feelings as they were frustrated.

This happened in 1956, when America gained its popularity back, for its stance against the tripartite aggression on Egypt, the popularity that has soon faded away because of America’s rejection in financing the construction of the High Dam.

When the Egyptian-American relations were restored, the Egyptian people welcomed President Nixon in an unprecedented event, then Carter remained to hold a special place in the hearts of Egyptians until America’s constant bias with Israel, which has been the cause of the deterioration of the Egyptian-American Rapprochement for years.

Obama’s real rival is the image of Obama himself, people who chant for his favor may in fact chant and shout against him. Only if he decided to read history well to be able to make it again after one year has already been lost.

BM

Ayman Nour's word to US Congress

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The Arabist - Ayman Nour released

Ayman Nour released

Ayman Nour on the campaign trail in Menouf, 2005.

The public prosecutor’s office declared a couple of hours ago that Ayman Nour would be released on medical grounds. I have heard he is now home. There is no further information as to why now, or why previous appeals to release him on medical ground were denied, but this appears to be a political decision. Rather strange timing that this happens a couple of days after the Washington Post urges the Obama administration not to deal with Hosni Mubarak unless Nour is freed.

Let’s assume – with all due respect to the integrity of the Egyptian legal system – that this is a political decision. What’s the rationale? I think the most plausible explanation is that it is not just an overture to Obama that Mubarak wants to change the negative dynamic in the US-Egypt relationship. It is a clear message that says, “look: Bush tried for four years to pressure me. But I do things on my own timing and any pressure is counterproductive.” The message is, before Obama and his administration settle into a clear approach on Egypt (I don’t think the NSC staffer on Egypt has even been appointed yet), that if the same US approach to Egypt continues, it will only generate headaches. It was necessary to release Nour to improve the bilateral relationship, since after the 2006 Democratic takeover of Congress the Ayman Nour case became a congressional issue beyond the control of the administration (in fact Dick Cheney tried to intervene to calm down Congress, and was pushed back.) Over the last two years Congress has put unprecedented (even if still relatively mild) pressure on Egypt by withholding $100 million in military aid (but giving Condoleeza Rice the right to waiver the withholding, which she did twice). Now Congress will not have Ayman Nour to rally support around this, and the cautious State and DoD approach to the Egyptian relationship (which is very strong in military, intelligence, and a few issues aside diplomatic terms) could very well prevail – especially as we’re seeing a new Egyptian crackdown on the tunnels to Gaza, the other big issue for Congress.

So what happens now? Well, Obama staffers have a token sign of progress they can point to, and a lesson that the Bush approach failed. Congress has what it wants. Ayman Nour, under Egyptian law, is now no longer able to run for public office as he has a criminal record. The Ghad party has been torn in half and will take time to rebuild. The legislative and political environment is much worse than it was when Nour first emerged as a national figure in 2004-2005, and repression is taking place much more brutally and systematically. So, most probably, we will see US pressure on democratic reform die down, since policymakers will find it difficult to get support for another direct confrontation with the Egyptian regime. They will wait and see what happens after succession. And for Mubarak, patience and sheer stubbornness won in the end. Which goes to prove that “democracy promotion” is a policy that’s in need of a serious rethink: “pressure” doesn’t really work, and autocracies have time on their side – unless those doing the pressuring are willing to make a serious break with past practices.

For now, I wish Ayman the best and am tremendously happy for his family, especially his brave wife Gameela who fought against all odds for so many years.

The Washington Post : Captive to a Discarded Cause

Egyptian dissident Ayman Nour embraced the president's 'freedom agenda' in 2005. He is still in jail.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

TOMORROW, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will pardon hundreds of prisoners who have served more than half of their sentences, an annual gesture of mercy coinciding with commemorations of the July 23, 1952, "revolution" that brought Egypt's military-backed regime to power. If past practice holds, those freed will include some convicted of violent crimes such as murder and rape. Yet the government has announced that people convicted of the distinctly non-heinous crime of forgery will not be eligible. Is Egypt suffering from an intolerable plague of counterfeiters? No, but its best-known political prisoner, Ayman Nour, happened to be convicted on that charge in a blatantly rigged 2006 trial.

Mr. Nour is a liberal democrat who, inspired in part by President Bush's call for democracy in Egypt, challenged Mr. Mubarak's reelection as president in 2005. His reward was to be sentenced to five years in prison, where he has been subjected to beatings and other abuse. Mr. Mubarak's relentless and vindictive persecution of Mr. Nour can only be seen as a calculated and personal insult to Mr. Bush and his "freedom agenda."

Mr. Nour has now served more than half of his five-year sentence. He is in poor health, suffering from diabetes and heart problems that have led to repeated hospitalization. He became eligible for parole in the spring; he has also appealed for release on medical grounds. Yet it seems likely that he will be forced to serve his full term, keeping him in prison for two years after Mr. Bush leaves the White House.

The president has made token gestures toward fulfilling his second inaugural promise to defend dissidents such as Mr. Nour. A year ago he mentioned his case in a speech in Prague; in May he told reporters that he had brought up Mr. Nour during a meeting he had with Mr. Mubarak. But the administration has shrunk from the measures it once was willing to take to help Egyptian political prisoners. For example, Mr. Bush withheld millions in U.S. aid to Egypt to win the freedom of dissident intellectual Saad Eddin Ibrahim in 2002.

In the past two years, Mr. Bush has all but abandoned his freedom agenda, allowing the State Department to return to the appeasement of autocrats such as Mr. Mubarak. We'd think, though, that the president would not be content to ignore such blatant mistreatment of someone who believed his words. The leverage to respond to Mr. Mubarak's behavior -- in the form of excessive and wasteful U.S. aid to the Egyptian military -- is readily available. If Mr. Nour is not freed this week, Mr. Bush ought to feel morally obligated to use that leverage.

Campaign like Egypt

WOMEN'S LENS - Un coup d'oeil féminin

In the U.S., we are about 16 months away from our presidential elections, but they have already started campaigning...oh what fatigue it's going to be until it's over.

Unless we just do it Egypt's way. Practical, swift, costs little money but for the incarceration of the opposition. In 2005, when Ayman Nour dared to run against Mubarak for the presidency, he was jailed. Ok, it wasn't that simple, but they came up with some story about his having forged signatures on documents for his Al-Ghad Party. An absolutely great stunt! NO TV debates, no embarrassing UTube/CNN moments, not having to spend millions of dollars showing your face here and there. Conserving energy..Al Gore would be proud.



Mr. Nour apparently has a heart condition; geez people will just say anything these days to get out of jail, won't they?? His lawyer has made attempts to get him released (oh, add diabetes to that list of ailments, and possible police brutality), but to no avail.

Word has reached Washington who is positively ATWITTER about the situation, and is urging Nour's release. Why all this publicity, when Condy is going to Egypt bearing presents? She will be in Cairo to see the democratic process at work. How much criticism can Mubarak take?

The US just announced its Santa Claus tour of its Middle East allies the only way it knows how. But the purse strings have already been curtailed once against Egypt due to its unorthodox methods of quieting bloggers. What will they do now to help Nour? Did I mention that he had heart surgery while in jail?

BBC News - Egyptian opposition leader jailed

The Egyptian government says the court trying Nour is neutral

Egyptian opposition leader Ayman Nour has received a five-year jail term after being found guilty of fraud.

Nour, who came second in a presidential poll in September, was first held in January this year accused of falsifying signatures to register his party, Ghad.

Egypt denies Nour's claim that the charges are politically motivated. And the US has voiced concern at the trial.

Hundreds of Nour's supporters at the court shouted slogans against President Hosni Mubarak as the verdict was given.

"Hosni Mubarak's rule is illegal! The trial is illegal!" they chanted.

According to the BBC's Bethany Bell in Cairo, the streets near the court were full of riot police and Ghad party supporters.

Nour has been in hospital after starting a hunger strike earlier this month in protest at his detention.

US concern

His lawyer, Amir Salim, is quoted by the Associated Press news agency as saying the decision against him will "go into the dustbin of history".

"This is a political verdict that will be annulled by the appeal court," he said.

A co-defendant in the trial, Ayman Ismail, had admitted forging documents for Nour - but later withdrew his testimony, saying the confession was forced out of him with threats against his family.

Despite the charges against him, Nour was allowed to compete in presidential polls, where his party finished second to Mr Mubarak's.

He lost his assembly seat to a candidate from the ruling party in November.

The has US earlier said it was watching Nour's trial, which it regards as a test of Cairo's tolerance of dissent.

State department spokesman Adam Ereli said this month that the US was calling on Egypt "to make every effort to ensure that this trial conforms to international standards".

BBC News - 'Travel ban' on Egypt party chief

'Travel ban' on Egypt party chief

Nour was one of Rice's most honoured guests on Monday

Egyptian police have prevented opposition politician Ayman Nour from leaving the country to speak at the European Parliament, he says.

Mr Nour is due to stand trial next month for forging signatures on his party's registration documents.

The young lawyer called his treatment "unconstitutional". He says the charges against him are politically motivated.

On Monday, he was one of a number of opposition activists who met US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

He was on his way to Strasbourg to address the parliament when he says he was stopped at Cairo's international airport.

"This is unconstitutional and it is politically motivated," Mr Nour told the Associated Press news agency.

Presidential challenge

Mr Nour will stand trial next week in a criminal court along with six other defendants from his al-Ghad (Tomorrow) party.

He says he hopes to stand against President Hosni Mubarak in country's first multi-candidate presidential elections due in September.

Mr Nour was released on bail on 12 March after six weeks in prison over the alleged forgery case. His detention without charge raised concern in Washington, which called for his release.

If he is convicted he would be disqualified from the presidential race.

On her recent visit Ms Rice criticised Cairo for cracking down on dissenters and called on it to ensure the upcoming election was free and fair. Among her talks with opposition figures on Monday, she held a 45-minute meeting with Mr Nour.

Washington Post : Battle for Egypt's Future

By Jackson Diehl

Monday, April 25, 2005

CAIRO -- Ayman Nour, the liberal Egyptian opposition politician whose jailing early this year has made him the leading challenger to President Hosni Mubarak, recently tried to launch his campaign for September's presidential election by knocking on doors. Police stopped him, telling him he didn't have permission. He tried to stage a conference for 1,500 of his supporters. A fire set by pro-government thugs forced the temporary clearing of the hall. When that failed to stop the meeting, the electricity was cut off.

It gets worse. Nour says he has been served with a court order mandating demolition of a community center he has maintained in the Cairo neighborhood of Bab al Shariya, his political base. Pro-government newspapers have reported that his penthouse apartment also will be demolished. One weekly paper that recently began appearing alongside Nour's party organ at newsstands published an article detailing how the 40-year-old parliamentarian might be assassinated: A sniper, it predicted, would open fire on his car.

Then there is the continuing criminal case, which almost everyone outside Mubarak's government, and some inside it, regards as blatantly political. A trial date has been set for June 28, and Nour says the case has been assigned to a notorious Egyptian security court judge. That judge is known for his closeness to Mubarak and for the seven-year sentence he imposed four years ago on another liberal dissident, Saad Eddin Ibrahim. "I lie in bed at night thinking that either I'm going to end up in jail or I'm going to be killed," a visibly anxious Nour told me last week. "To say the least, this campaign has gotten off to a very bad start."

If so, the prospect is bad not just for Nour but for Mubarak, who effectively has staked his legacy and the future of the regime he leads on his promise to replace the rigged referendum that has previously extended his rule with a multi-candidate democratic election. There's little doubt the 76-year-old Mubarak will win the election, in part because it will exclude unsanctioned political parties--including the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's powerful Islamic movement. But a free and fair election within those limits--with access to the media and full freedom to campaign for Nour and the two or three other candidates who might challenge Mubarak--would be seen by most Egyptians and many outsiders, including the Bush administration, as a political breakthrough.

On the other hand, an electoral farce featuring the persecution or jailing of Nour and the ballot-box stuffing widely reported in previous Egyptian elections would eliminate the possibility that Egypt, like Mexico or South Korea, will be led to democracy by its ruling party. It could also scatter the group of young technocrats who, under Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, have embarked on an aggressive effort to liberalize the economy and modernize the regime. The prosecution of Nour, one told me, is intended "to stop the reforms." Nazif, whose tax and tariff cutting and privatization of state companies have prompted a 130 percent gain in the Cairo stock market since last summer, insists the government is committed to real change. "We led peace. We can lead political reform," he said, echoing the phrase President Bush has used for Egypt. He added: "We don't have any differences" with Washington "on where we want to be. We might have some differences on the tactics and the pace." A senior Egyptian security official I spoke to was more circumspect, but also adamant. "This won't be the Tunisian model," he said, referring to the farcical multi-candidate election staged by strongman Zine Abidine Ben Ali last year. "It will be fair, it will be open and it will be under the eyes of everyone in our society."

The real meaning of these pledges is now being hammered out in official committees that are drafting the constitutional amendment providing for presidential elections, the law that will govern this year's campaign and the ruling party's platform. Regime liberals are pressing for a month-long window in which opposition candidates will each get two hours a week on state television; a suspension of emergency regulations that now bar them from holding public rallies and demonstrations; public financing for their campaigns; a nonpartisan authority to manage the election and, crucially, international observers to guarantee that the balloting will be fair and the count honest. Intriguingly, the national judges' union recently declared that its members will not supervise polling places, as had been expected, unless Mubarak accepts reform legislation making the judiciary more independent.

Yet the liberals concede that even if they win all their battles, they have no control over the prosecution of Nour, which is in the hands of Mubarak and his security apparatus. Nazif said the case could be wrapped up in June, allowing Nour to campaign freely if he is acquitted. But the security official I spoke to said the case would be extended, after a preliminary session, until October--meaning that Nour will run with the prospect of being sentenced to a prison term after Mubarak is safely reelected.

"This is a battle about the future," Nour said. "They want to convict me, even if only for a day, so that I can't run for president or parliament again." That would help clear the path for Mubarak's son Gamal, who, like Nour, is in his forties. It would also propel Egypt toward the very political turmoil and international isolation that Mubarak seeks to avoid.

A risk worth taking : an interview with Ayman Nour

A RISK WORTH TAKING

Al-Ahram Weekly

Ayman Nour tells Mona El-Nahhas that running for president and working to restore party unity top his post-release agenda


For nearly a month the name of Ayman Nour, MP and chairman of the liberal opposition Al- Ghad Party, has made headlines. Arrested in January on charges of forging thousands of party membership applications, Nour was detained at Tora prison for almost 40 days pending investigations.

On Saturday Prosecutor-General Maher Abdel-Wahed ordered Nour's release on LE10,000 bail. It remains unclear whether the case will be closed or Nour will still have to stand trial. Whatever happens, few members of the public accept the official line that the case is criminal and not politically motivated.

Following his release, Nour was soon back in the headlines, having announced his intention to run for president in the coming elections.

A few days before your release you said you intended to run in the coming presidential elections. What will be the consequences of that decision for your party and for your political future?

I am sure this step will have serious repercussions. I am ready for the risk, though, because I believe it will help outline the future of our society. My participation will help people choose among candidates who are qualified and capable of competing to provide an effective alternative to the ruling party.

With such a target in mind, my freedom or even my life would be small price to pay.

What preparations have you made for the coming elections?

The battle will be fierce. Yet we are ready for it. It is not only our party's battle, but the battle of a whole generation.

We intend to run against the ruling NDP's nominee, whether that is President Hosni Mubarak, his son or somebody else. We will present our platform against theirs, and will ask for an international committee to monitor the elections in order to guarantee transparency.

We are determined not to allow the party to be excluded from participating, particularly after we heard that they intend to tailor the legal conditions with the aim of banning party nominees from running. Doing that will only add another failure to their record.

How do you see your chances of success?

I would bet on the Egyptian people's eagerness for change. We believe they are fed up with seeing the same faces, same party and the same style of administration for 25 years.

You said earlier that your call for amending the Constitution was the reason behind your arrest. Now that President Mubarak has himself asked for a constitutional amendment do you still believe this is the case?

What I said was that my call for amending the Constitution was one of the reasons behind the case. It is not the only one.

I think the main reason was my intention to run in the presidential elections, and although I had not announced that at the time of my arrest it seems they learned of it.

If your calls for amending the Constitution and running for the office of president were behind your arrest, why were other political activists advocating the same cause not arrested as well?

Believe me I have no idea. Ask those who sent me to jail.

You said that destroying your party was the main objective behind the "state- fabricated" case against you. Why then did the government allow the party to be formed in the first place?

It was not their permission that allowed our existence. It was, after all, simply a matter of time before the courts would have ordered the granting of permission for the party to be formed once we filed a law suit against the government.

As I have repeatedly said, the government had no choice but to license the party after they were certain the court would rule in our favour.

At the time it was said the party obtained a licence after cutting a deal with the state. And some people accused the party of maintaining close ties with the government. I believe that time has proved such allegations wrong.

During your absence the party suffered several internal splits. What are your plans to restore unity?

The party suffered no splits but differences in opinion as to how the party should have been run in such a crisis. Some members thought it would be safer to avoid direct confrontation with the state, believing this would help me. Others preferred to put as much pressure on the government as possible.

Some leading party members made statements with which I was unhappy and which were not in line with the party's overall agenda. But we will deal with these issues and re- organise the party in a democratic manner.

Do you think there is sufficient time left before parliamentary and presidential elections to restore the party's strength?

I believe that working under such a strict timetable gives an incentive to the members to get their act together, overcome the ordeal and become much stronger.

Behind bars you said repeatedly that controversial journalist Ibrahim Eissa, appointed by the party's first general congress as editor-in-chief of Al-Ghad's mouthpiece, enjoyed your full support. Yet Eissa was replaced by a journalist from the weekly independent paper Sawt Al-Umma, which has attacked both you and the party. Why?

As far as I am concerned I have no authority to violate decisions made during the party's first general congress. For me Eissa remains the editor of the newspaper.

The decision to replace Eissa was not mine. I was not there when some of the party officials assigned certain journalists, whom I hardly knew, posts on the newspaper's editorial board. In jail I had to accept the will of the party officials to protect Al-Ghad from internal splits.

I'll meet very soon with the newspaper's new editorial board and evaluate the whole matter from a professional perspective. Everything I have heard until now suggests that security pressure was exerted on party officials and that was the reason behind choosing those journalists.

Does this mean the party has been infiltrated by state security?

Frankly speaking, yes. You'll not find a political party in Egypt which is not infiltrated by state security. Yet in our party such infiltration remains limited.

This, I believe, is due to the crisis we are going through and the party's youthfulness. After all, we've only been in the field for five months.

US pressure for your release led some to hint that the party has direct connections with Washington while others accused the party of receiving financial aid from the US.

The Al-Ghad Party is above suspicion. We have never received a penny, from the Egyptian government or from any foreign government. Let them ask US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, if they do not believe us.

Our finance comes mainly from the party's members, who paid all the expenses of the first general congress. Whoever repeats such nonsense is simply mudslinging.

Then how do you explain US support? And do you think such support was the reason behind your release?

I did not ask for this support and cannot be held responsible for it. Yet I cannot blame anyone for supporting me. I am not against foreign support, but against foreign intervention. That we will never allow when our party comes to power.

My release was natural, given that I was the wronged party. The US had nothing to do with my release. If anything, it came as a result of strong popular support.

Some believe that US support may negatively affect Al-Ghad's popularity.

I don't think so. People are smart enough to know who has connections with the US, who makes pilgrimages to the US and who receives financial aid from them.

What is your response to the attitude of the People's Assembly and its Human Rights Committee regarding your case?

Compared with the support I received from the European parliament the People's Assembly was shameful. As for its Human Rights Committee, I think it would be better if they dissolved it. We do not need a committee the only role of which is to mask the ugly image of the state.

I sent a letter to the People's Assembly speaker telling him that my life was in danger. The committee members only started to do something after 10 days and even then faked a report about my health, denying that I had been tortured or had any health problems, while in fact I am diabetic and have a heart condition.

And what about the attitude of the opposition parties?

Some of the opposition parties, the Nasserist Party and Al-Geel Al-Dimoqrati (democratic generation) Party adopted honourable stances for which I thank them. Others preferred not to declare their support for me.

As for the rest, those who took the opportunity to settle old accounts and stab me in the back, I hope they are ashamed of themselves. Their position backfired and instead of harming me they were themselves belittled in the eyes of the public.

The Washington Post : Egypt Holds Candidate Despite Vow Of Reform

Egypt Holds Candidate Despite Vow Of Reform

By Daniel Williams

Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 12, 2005; Page A01

CAIRO, March 11 -- Two weeks after President Hosni Mubarak announced that Egypt would hold multi-candidate presidential elections, the first politician to say he would run was sitting in jail.

Inmate No. 1387 at Tora jail is Ayman Nour, a lawyer and member of parliament. His normal residence is a penthouse apartment decorated with bronze French Empire-style knickknacks, gigantic gilt mirrors and a plaster image of Marilyn Monroe with her skirt blowing upward.

Ayman Nour, right, a candidate for president of Egypt, is surrounded by police at a court appearance in late January. (Nasser Nouri -- AP)

Nour, whose small Tomorrow Party was legalized in October and holds six seats in Egypt's 454-member parliament, is only one of thousands of Egyptian political figures jailed during decades of authoritarian rule. Yet since his arrest Jan. 29 on suspicion of forging official documents, his fate has become intertwined with the destiny of political change in Egypt.

State Department and European Union officials, all pressing for democratic reform, have complained about his detention. Pro-government reformists who dispute Nour on the details and pace of change nonetheless express concern that his internment will discredit their own efforts. Government officials reject complaints that Nour is being persecuted and insist that his case is a domestic legal question and not the business of outsiders. And the people of Cairo, legendarily indifferent to politics, are debating the justice of his case.

The extent of Nour's popularity is difficult to gauge -- there have been no polls on prospective presidential candidates. Mustafa Kamel Sayed, a political science professor at Cairo University, said recently that Nour might be able to win 20 or even 30 percent of the vote in a race against Mubarak.

Regardless, his arrest exposes the uncertainty of a government that feels itself under siege, observers say. The Bush administration has singled out Egypt as overripe for reform. Political demonstrators are becoming increasingly loud and anti-Mubarak, even though they are still far outnumbered by phalanxes of police officers. The government appears reluctant to risk letting an independent politician run free.

"Fear makes for political mistakes. Everything is up in the air, and you will find cases like Nour's," said Hala Mustafa, editor in chief of the al-Ahram Democracy Review, part of a government-backed reform research group. She declined to comment on the merits of Nour's case.

Aida Seif Dawla, a longtime left-wing activist and human rights campaigner, said it was "an extremely weak moment for the government. It's not just Nour. Far from it. They pick up people handing out leaflets at the book fair. The government wants to give the appearance of making a new start, but it's not going to take any risks."

At first blush, Nour seems an unlikely political martyr. He campaigned for competitive presidential elections, but he is far from a revolutionary. In an interview two days before his arrest, he predicted that whatever the conditions, this year's election would simply extend Mubarak's 24-year reign for another six years. In October, he told a reporter, "We love and appreciate President Mubarak, but we love this nation as well and would like to develop it like other countries."

Said Gamila Ismail, Nour's wife and political aide: "Ayman was the most surprised of all about his arrest. He never gave it a second thought."

Nour had taken positions recently, however, that were daring by the standards of Egyptian political discourse. On the eve of a meeting between Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party and opposition groups, he sent a letter demanding that Mubarak attend the conference; otherwise, Nour said he would not. This assertion of equality irritated the president, party insiders said. Nour was jailed three days before the conference opened.

Nour's associates say he also had told them that he thought Mubarak's wife, Suzanne, was pressing her husband to arrange for their son Gamal to succeed him.

That kind of talk is risky, despite an easing of repression that has brought life to a political scene still restricted by quarter-century-old emergency laws. Security agents telephone foreign correspondents' Egyptian assistants to ask whom they are talking to and about what. This week, when the Tomorrow Party issued the first edition of its newspaper -- in which Nour announced his candidacy -- police held up distribution for a day to review the articles.

"Nour's problem is that he has been acting in excess of his real political influence," said Ali Abdel Fattah, an official of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Brotherhood, an Islamic-based organization once associated with violence in Egypt, is banned from politics but is regarded as the country's biggest opposition force.

On the morning of Jan. 29, Nour received notification that his immunity from prosecution as a member of parliament was being lifted. He rushed to the People's Assembly building and was told that police were investigating forgeries among documents he submitted last year to the government in his bid to have his party legalized. When legislators -- 85 percent of whom belong to Mubarak's party -- voted to expose Nour to prosecution, he responded heatedly: "I put myself in the hands of God and the Egyptian people. All know I am innocent." He turned to the head of parliament and labeled him "unjust." The legislature later struck the words from the record.

A few minutes after his arrest, police searched his apartment, while his wife and two children were present. The 15 agents went through computer disks, inspected his medicine cabinet and even took samples of pipe tobacco, Ismail said

Prosecutors and a court have until Tuesday to decide whether to press charges or release him. Late Thursday, prosecutors announced the release of one of Nour's associates, Ayman Barakat, who also was detained on forgery charges.

In effect, the stage is set for a test of Egypt's reform efforts and its relations with the United States, which provides the country $2 billion in annual aid. On Jan. 31, State Department spokesman Richard A. Boucher said, "The arrest, in our minds, raises questions about the outlook for democratic process in Egypt." Two weeks later, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice told Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit about the Bush administration's "strong concerns."

Although Egyptian officials are reluctant to publicly comment on the case, they insist that the allegations are valid. "The issue of Ayman Nour is an issue related to criminal accusations," Aboul Gheit said in an interview. "There are no political considerations. It remains with the attorney general to decide, without interference of outside powers."

The case hinges on the activities of a Tomorrow Party member who told police he forged numerous documents with signatures of people purporting to back the party's legalization bid -- all at Nour's request. Only 50 such papers are needed, but Nour provided more than 2,000. Prosecutors contend that more than 1,000 were forgeries.

Nour's attorney, Amir Salem, a human rights activist who has been jailed nine times, said Nour forged no documents and the informer was a plant. "I've never seen a frame-up prepared like this," he said.

Nour, 40, has been involved in politics since high school. His father was a pioneer member of the Wafd Party, a group that dates from the 1920s. "I remember seeing him 21 years ago get out of his late-model Mercedes and go right into student meetings to play politics," Mazen Mustafa, a Tomorrow Party member, said of the younger Nour. "He was different from others. He liked to let others speak."

Fifteen years ago, Nour published a book presenting liberalism as an alternative to Islamic politics. In 1994, he won a seat in parliament representing Cairo's Bab ash-Shariya district, a teeming neighborhood of butchers and farm supply shops. He broke with Wafd five years ago because he came to believe the party was too tame, ran again in Bab ash-Shariya and won. "He is ambitious, that is for sure," said Wael Nawara, another Tomorrow member.

In parliament, Nour carried out investigations of everything from bread prices to torture, endearing himself to his impoverished constituency, supporters say. He operated a charity office and community center in Bab ash-Shariya that provided medical advice, a hall for free weddings and school lessons for children.

On Wednesday, at a teahouse in Bab ash-Shariya, a laborer said Nour was guilty only of "trying to be president and be democratic. . . . He cares about this area. He paved sidewalks and planted trees."

A critic arrived and began to sing the praises of Mubarak: "He should stay in office forever. Ayman Nour must have done something wrong or he wouldn't be in jail."

"This is democracy?" countered the laborer. "Anyone who speaks up can end up in the same trouble."

That night, Nour's supporters held a candlelight vigil to demand his release. About 50 demonstrators and at least three times as many police officers showed up.

Al Ahram weekly : Tomorrow's party today

Tomorrow's party today

With an official licence finally in hand, the new Al-Ghad Party will be electing its chairman tomorrow. Mona El-Nahhas reports on the party's struggle for legitimacy and interviews its founder, Ayman Nour




Nour and Al-Ghad Party members during the press conference at Beit Al- Umma

The Political Parties Committee, an affiliate of the Shura Council, approved the formation of Al-Ghad (Tomorrow) Party last week, bringing the number of political parties in Egypt to 18.

Since its formation in 1977, the committee -- which is authorised to give licences to new parties -- has turned down such requests 63 times. Prior to Al-Ghad, only two applicants -- Al-Wefaq Al-Watani (National Accord) Party in 2000, and Al-Geel Al-Democrati (Democratic Generation) Party in 2001 -- have broken that mould.

Al-Ghad Party's approval was announced in a very brief statement issued after a short meeting of committee members on 27 October. The statement did not explain the approval, which observers found odd, considering that Al- Ghad's application had been rejected thrice before on the grounds that its platform was not fundamentally different from that of any currently existing party.

Following each rejection, 40-year-old MP Ayman Nour -- who represents the party's 5,200 founders -- attempted to amend the party's platform, which now weighs in at 2000 pages.

Nour said the decision was "a significant boost for democracy and pluralism in Egypt". He expressed hope that two other frequent applicants -- Al-Karama and Al- Wasat parties -- would also obtain official authorisation in the near future. Al-Karama Party was rejected on the grounds that "it advocates a radical ideology", while Al- Wasat Party was denied a licence for its alleged links to the banned Muslim Brotherhood group.

A statement from the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights (EOHR) welcomed the government's decision to licence Al-Ghad. At the same time, the EOHR called for the parties committee to be abolished altogether, arguing that since the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) controls the committee, it could only constitute an obstacle to unfettered political life.

Some political analysts have interpreted the granting of a licence to Nour's party as a governmental stab at the liberal Wafd Party, which has recently stepped up its criticism of the NDP.

"The government does not want strong parties," said Cairo University political science professor Hassan Nafaa, who thinks the government might be counterbalancing the Wafd Party with Al-Ghad. "The Wafd will be preoccupied by its new competitor, which will attempt to attract a large number of Wafdists into its ranks. As a logical result, the two parties' attention will be distracted from serious political issues into infantile struggles. And the government will emerge as the winner."

Shura Council Speaker Safwat El-Sherif, who serves as chairman of the political parties committee, dismissed allegations of political manoeuvring. The committee's decisions, he said, "are completely void of personal whims, providing licences to parties that have proven to have unique platforms".

Wafd Party Chairman Noman Gomaa chose not to comment on the approval.

Nour, a former Wafdist, insisted that his party was not out to battle the Wafd, even though 25 per cent of the latter's members have recently joined the new party. At the same time, Nour chose Beit Al-Umma -- the historic residence of the leader of the 1919 anti-colonial revolution and founder of the Wafd Party, Saad Zaghlul (1858-1927) -- to host the press conference announcing Al-Ghad Party's inauguration.

During last Thursday's press conference, Nour said, "Zaghlul is neither owned by, nor serves as a trademark of the Wafd Party."

Nour was dismissed from the Wafd Party in 2001, after Gomaa accused him of attempting to split the party by leading a dissident faction. Following his dismissal, Nour -- who already held a parliamentary seat representing the Wafd -- turned independent.

The new party's mouthpiece -- a daily newspaper -- will be launched in January 2005.

Al-Ghad's first general congress, meanwhile, is set to take place tomorrow. Party founders will elect the chairman and 46 members of the party's higher committee. Nominations were submitted between Sunday and Tuesday.

The elections will take place at the international conference centre in Nasr City, and results will be announced on Friday evening. Until then, the party will continue to be led by Nour.

The party already includes six independent members of parliament, which would appear to automatically make it the leader of the opposition front at the People's Assembly, whose next session begins 11 November.

That role, however, is still up in the air since People's Assembly Speaker Fathi Sorour has suggested that Al-Ghad would not be recognised as a parliamentary bloc before 2005, when new parliamentary elections will be held. Nour's argument is that the six independent MPs who now belong to the party should be reclassified as Al-Ghad Party MPs, to be headed by MP Abdel-Moneim El-Tunisi.

The party first submitted its platform to the Political Parties committee in July 2003. When the committee rejected it on the grounds that it was similar to those of the existing parties, Nour contested the decision at the Political Parties Court, an affiliate of the Supreme Administrative Court that is authorised to hear appeals relating to political parties.

After several hearings, a final verdict was scheduled for May. The ruling was then delayed until 25 September. When three of the eight public figures on the court (all of whom are members of the NDP) failed to attend, the ruling was delayed again. Another deliberate absence of five of the public figures caused a third postponement of the verdict, this time until 6 November.

Besides court appeals, Nour also re-submitted the party's application to the Political Parties Committee three times, using a legal loophole that allows party founders to file successive requests using a different name for the party each time, as long as amendments to the party's platform are introduced. Following the party's authorisation, Nour announced that all legal cases that had previously been filed would be dropped.

Al-Ghad calls for democratic reform, with an emphasis on secularism and promoting the empowerment of women, who constitute 37 per cent of the party's founders. Al-Ghad is also the only Egyptian political party in which a woman, Mona Makram Ebeid, holds the post of party secretary- seneral.

The party's main concern, as voiced by its founders, is combating poverty and solving the average citizen's problems. Its platform gives priority to domestic issues, paying far less attention to regional and international affairs.

Al-Ghad's agenda for political reform is summed up by the new constitution it has drafted to replace the one currently in use. The party aims to obtain one million signatures in support of its draft constitution, after which they plan to put it before parliament.

Al-Ghad's draft constitution abolishes the system of presidential referendum, in which the People's Assembly nominates a single candidate for a popular referendum.

No less significantly, Al-Ghad's draft constitution opts for a parliamentary rather than a presidential system, wherein the government is formed by the party with a parliamentary majority and executive power rests with the prime minister, rather than the president. Under the parliamentary system, the president's powers are largely symbolic.

Reform starts at home

Ayman Nour, founder of Al-Ghad Party, was born in Mansoura in the Daqahliya governorate in 1964. Nour graduated from Mansoura University's faculty of law in 1985, and went on to obtain a masters degree in the philosophy of political history as well as a PhD in international law.

He had begun working as a journalist for the liberal Wafd Party newspaper, Al- Wafd, in 1984, and eventually rose up in the party's ranks to become an elected member of the Wafd's Higher Committee.

In 1995, Nour ran for and won a parliamentary seat representing Cairo's Bab Al- Sha'riya district. In 2000, he was re-elected.

In March 2001, after the death of longtime Wafd leader Fouad Serageddin, Nour was dismissed from the party after clashing with its new chairman, Noaman Gomaa.

How do you explain the Political Parties Committee's approval of Al-Ghad Party?

I think that the committee had no choice but to approve the party's foundation. We were certain to get a court ruling in our favour, so the committee found it better for the approval to come willingly from within rather than be imposed on them by a court ruling.

Some have said the approval is a stab at the Wafd Party, which has recently stepped up its criticism of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). Would you agree?

I don't think this is true, since the tone of our criticism is just as harsh as that used by the Wafd.

Before getting the licence, we were very harsh in our criticism of the government, via the dozens of inquiries we submitted at the People's Assembly [on important matters].

I want to make it clear that we will never be an alternative for the Wafd. If we aim to replace any of the existing parties, it will be the NDP.

Would you provide us with a summary of the party's priorities?

First, we will focus on widening the party's membership by meeting with people everywhere. We will also prepare ourselves for the upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for late 2005, when we hope to win numerous seats.

You have repeatedly described Al-Ghad as being a unique party. In your opinion, what distinguishes it from currently existing parties?

Al-Ghad is a party for the younger generation, since nearly 64 per cent of its members are under 45.

As a youthful party, its ideological perspectives and mechanisms will be different, inspiring a boost to Egyptian political life. We are also the only party with a large number of founding members, something that reflects an ability to interact with the public.

And finally, we have a new liberal ideology, which takes the social dimension into account, and provides solutions for poorer classes.

How do you think Egypt can go about achieving a comprehensive reform programme?

Political reform is the basis of any reform in Egypt. Without amending the current constitution, political reform cannot take place. Because we believe in the importance of this, Al-Ghad took the initiative and drafted an alternative constitution, adopting the principle of power rotation.

We hope this new constitution will see the light very soon.

Why have you decided that your party will not take part in the opposition parties' reform alliance?

We will never join the alliance, which rejected our participation from the very start, on the pretext that we were not a legitimate party.

That's their opinion, which I don't think will change. Even if it changed after we became official, it makes no difference to us. We are not going to be part of their alliance, but that does not mean that we will refrain from coordinating with them on reform-related issues.

Why have you said that Al-Ghad will not take the governmental financial aid allocated to all parties?

Simply because we decided to depend on ourselves; the financial aid we get from party members and supporters is enough.

Moreover, the governmental support may be used to shackle the party's performance.

Does Al-Ghad intend to engage in a dialogue with the NDP?

As a liberal party, Al-Ghad believes in dialogue. Dialogue between Egypt's different political forces is very much needed, if we are talking about reform. Thus, if we are invited to an open dialogue with the NDP, we will be willing to do so, as long as that dialogue is without preconditions.

And what about the Muslim Brotherhood group?

We have no objection to the Brotherhood or any political force whose legitimacy is from the people, rather than via a mere license.

When Al-Ghad holds its first general congress to elect the party's leadership tomorrow, will you be the only candidate for the chairman's post?

Of course not -- former MP Mohamed Farid Hassanein and others will run against me for the post, and I am very pleased with that, since having several nominees is a healthy phenomenon.

And although the party statutes give the party founder the right to chair the party for five successive years without holding elections, I decided to give up that right. I insisted on not chairing the party unless fair elections took place.

Not content with this, I also added a new item to the statutes banning the party chairman from nominating himself for the same post for more than two successive terms. After all, it would be nonsense to call for power rotation without applying it on ourselves first.

How will Al-Ghad's internal leadership elections be any different from those of other parties?

Our elections will feature, for the first time, judicial supervision over the whole process. The idea of judicial supervision was the brainchild of the party's leadership.

We asked judges and public figures to supervise the electoral process in order to guarantee fair results.

Egypt keeps new parties on short leash

By Dan Murphy | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

It's another Wednesday night in Cairo's poor Bab Al-Sharaya neighborhood and legislator Ayman Nour is leading one of his weekly party meetings, where Egypt's old-style culture of political patronage and the yearnings for democracy of a shrinking middle class collide.

Hundreds of poor constituents press up to Mr. Nour's elegant wife, Gameela, seeking help navigating Egypt's Kafkaesque bureaucracy, assistance in land disputes, or simply a little money.

It's precisely the sort of political ferment that President George W. Bush had in mind when he said the invasion of Iraq would serve as a "dramatic and inspiring example of freedom" to the region. His vision was for democratic change in an Arab world hamstrung by decades of authoritarian rule that has damaged its economies and helped Islamic militancy to flourish.Later, on the stage of a converted wedding hall, Nour delivers a rousing political speech, dismissing the government as outdated and repressive, punctuated by occasional shouts of assent from some 300 supporters.

But despite Nour's credentials as a member of Parliament, and the fact that his weekly meetings have yet to be stopped by the government, the Ghad Party operates in a legal limbo. Earlier this month, his and three other parties failed to win official approval for their organizations, making it illegal for them to attempt to widen their support before elections scheduled for next October.

"We've been promised legal status for a long time - but they never deliver,'' says Nour, who was originally elected to parliament as a member of Egypt's opposition WAFD Party, but was later kicked out of WAFD for criticizing its leadership. He remains in Parliament as an independent, since his new party is not recognized. "I'm extending my parliamentary immunity as far as a I can to allow us to operate, but as things stand we can't build the opposition Egypt needs. Egypt's politics are stagnant, and that's why the country is in so much trouble."

Over the past few years, there's been an unprecedented level of talk about reform in Egypt and other Arab allies of the US such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. But that talk has translated into little action, with strict limits on political activity in almost all Arab countries.

Last week Saudi Arabia, which is planning its first-ever national elections next year for posts in its largely ceremonial municipal councils, said that women would not be allowed to vote. Even in countries that have held relatively free parliamentary elections, like Kuwait last year, there have been no real gains for the forces of reform. There, gerrymandering and strong support for Islamist candidates reduced the number of legislators who support a Western-style democracy.

But it is in Egypt, the sleeping giant of the region, where the hope for change was perhaps greatest. Formally a republic, the country had some experience with liberal politics as recently as the 1950s. A large number of activists hark back to Egypt's liberal period when it was the region's intellectual and political leader.

"We want to reinvigorate the multi-party system, which is dying out here,'' says Mona Makram-Ebied, a Harvard-educated political scientist and a supporter of Nour's Ghad Party, or party of tomorrow. "There's a younger generation thirsting for a voice. They want to make a new and modern Egypt, and there's a great nostalgia to make Egypt what it was when it was the lodestar of the Arab world. But the system we have now is ossified, and it's standing in our way."

Ms. Makram-Ebeid, who comes from a prominent liberal political family, says reformers' hopes were lifted by a promise from the ruling party last month that it would make it easier for competitors to register. To her mind, the Ghad Party had jumped through every hoop put in front of it by the government.

The party has called for constitutional reforms that would create a parliamentary democracy and help prevent another leader from dominating the way President Hosni Mubarak has for the past 23-years. Therefore, Makram-Ebeid felt that no government committed to reform could continue to stand in their way. "Yet they still block us."

As dozens of party supporters gathered outside the Political Parties Court in Cairo earlier this month, expecting to hear their application had been approved (after four earlier denials), they were met with disappointment. The panel, composed of judges and members appointed by Mubarak's government, failed to reach a quorum when most of the government appointees failed to show up, blocking the party without having to issue an outright denial.

"When the government talks of reform, they are addressing foreign nations, and trying to fool the naïve,'' says Nour, who is also a lawyer. "They're just playing games with us."

So far, Nour has played the game right back. Having identified a loophole in the country's tight party registration law, which allows new parties a four month grace period to conduct limited activities while they await approval, he's created five parties with slight variations on the "Ghad" name in the past 20 months, registering a new name every time their application has been refused.

But he says time is running out, with elections scheduled for next October and no party offices beyond the one he runs in his Cairo constituency. "We think we could make inroads in a fair election. But now, we don't have a party newspaper and we can't really reach out to the people. I'll probably have to run for office as an independent again."